Tag Archives: LSAC

Who Wants to Be a Lawyer?

Posted on December 14, 2012 by | 1 Comment

The LSAC is reporting that based on preliminary numbers, law school applications for classes beginning in the fall of 2013 are down an eye-popping 24.6% over last year.  The number of applicants is down 22.4%.  Last year’s numbers were themselves rather stark.  LSAC reported that 68,000 people applied to law school last year, down 13.7% from last year (which saw a 10% decline from the year before).  It appears that the chorus of “Is law school worth it?” heard from both the legal and mainstream media in recent years has caused many potential law students to change their plans.

Despite the drop-off in applicants, law schools are admitting about the same number of students they have for the last decade.  In 2004 a record-high 100,600 individuals applied to law school, but just 56% (or 55,900) were admitted.  Compare that to 2011, when 71% of the 78,500 applicants were accepted to law school.  Class sizes, already down 7.7% last year, are set to shrink again this year.  However, it is unlikely that they will shrink as much as the applicant pool, particularly given the fact that the number of ABA-approved schools has actually increased since 2004.  Thus, three-quarters of current applicants (or more) may obtain admission to the law school class of 2016.

Some might argue that while law school admissions are less competitive overall, top-ranked schools can still be highly selective.  That is true, but it may be changing.  Jerry Organ of the Legal Whiteboard wrote in August that 111 law schools saw declines in their LSAT/GPA profiles between its 2010 and 2011 classes.  With applications once again down precipitously, it is likely that schools will again see declines in these credentials this year.

I see a silver lining, however.  While LSAT scores and undergraduate GPAs correlate with success in law school, the link to becoming a successful lawyer is more tenuous.  One characteristic that is essential to a legal career, however, is harder to measure on an application – the desire to practice law.

If there is an upside for the legal industry in these dismal numbers, it is that a legal career is no longer viewed as simply a safe, and lucrative, career path.  No really – bear with me.  As in other industries, some lawyers will find job security and financial success while others struggle.  Thanks to rabble-rousers like Paul Campos and projects like Law School Transparency, the risks of a legal career are more knowable to prospective lawyers than ever.  As a result, potential lawyers are better equipped than ever to weigh those risks against the strength of the legal aspirations.

Posted by Emily Fisher

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Law School Applications Down Sharply

Posted on April 13, 2012 by | 1 Comment

Following on last month’s news of a precipitous drop in the number of Law School Admissions Tests (LSATs) administered in the 2011-2012 academic year, the LSAT Blog and The Atlantic are reporting this week that law school applications are down significantly as well.

Citing preliminary numbers from the Law School Admissions Council (LSAC), the LSAT Blog runs the numbers on the drop in law school applications for the class of 2015:

Applicant numbers are down 15.6%, and applications submitted are down 13.6%, according to data submitted through 3/30/12 … LSAC states, “Last year at this time, we had 91% of the preliminary final applicant count.”

Given the challenges facing new law school graduates, it is unsurprising that some potential lawyers may be reconsidering whether a legal education is the right path.  Unless employment prospects improve (and recent BLS projections indicate that they might not, as legal employers replace some attorneys with lower-cost workers), law schools may see a permanent decline in applications rates.  But is that a bad thing?

The Atlantic’s Jordan Weissman thinks it might be, if the individuals skipping out on law school are people who are “smart and hard working enough” to obtain a high LSAT score.  Weissman hones in on the following chart from the new LSAC data, showing the decline in law school applications among high-scoring LSAT takers:

Pointing specifically to 20% decline in applicants with an LSAT score in the 170-174 range, Weissman argues that “The number of students applying who probably should apply to law school has dropped the most.”

Law schools and law firms, both of which seek to recruit the strongest candidates with the greatest likelihood of success, would probably agree.  Correlation studies conducted by the LSAC show that LSAT scores, coupled with undergraduate grade point averages, are a useful predictor of grades in the first year of law school.  Law schools thus use the LSAT to screen applicants, and law firms later use first year grades to do the same thing.  If high-scoring individuals choose not to attend law school or pursue legal careers, schools and firms will both have to recruit from weaker applicant pools.

As Weissman acknowledges, the equation looks different from the other side.  A college senior with a 172 LSAT score could gain admission to a competitive law school, and is statistically likely to do well in that first year.  But should he go?  Law school tuition continues to rise, while job opportunities for new lawyers do not.  Given his test score, our hypothetical student has better than average analytical and logical reasoning skills that he might use to determine that he would be better off without a J.D.  The real question is whether the legal industry is worse off without him.

Posted by Emily Fisher

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